The impacts of climate change have far-reaching consequences in many domains, posing a range of interconnected risks. While some of these risks stem directly from climatic phenomena, many are shaped or amplified by existing socio-economic conditions. In Working Paper D6.2 “Vulnerabilities in Europe During Times of Transition” SPES Partners from the London School of Economics and Political Sciences explores climate-related risks in Europe from a multidimensional perspective, with a particular focus on cumulative exposure. In particular, they map multiple risks across European regions by integrating information from various sources, focusing on risks related to climate change and the ongoing ecological transition.
Despite growing concerns over climate impacts, little is known about individuals who are simultaneously vulnerable across multiple socioeconomic dimensions or about the conditions that determine their exposure to climate-related changes. While many risks, ranging from geopolitical instability to the transition toward a greener economy, could affect EU citizens, the analysis focuses specifically on climate-related risks. These include cardiovascular and respiratory issues, as well as energy and transport poverty.
Building on the literature on inequality and concentration, authors analyse the distribution of risks from a multidimensional perspective. The framework, developed and presented in the study, explicitly recognizes that certain individuals are more likely to experience multiple overlapping risks, providing a comprehensive micro-level assessment of climate change’s potential impacts. Authors consider exposure to four climate-related risks — energy and transport insecurity, reflecting climate-related demand shocks and rising energy costs, and health risks, particularly those related to respiratory and cardiovascular conditions — together with socioeconomic conditions, which account for three different vulnerabilities that can amplify the adverse effect of climatic risks. They also integrate seven areas or dimensions of exposure and vulnerability to define overall risk.
To conduct their research, authors merged data from multiple sources to integrate all dimensions into a single dataset, enabling a comprehensive analysis of risk distribution across Europe. They assess exposure levels, identify dominant risk factors by region, and examine how socioeconomic factors drive variations within countries. Additionally, they analyse inequality in risk distribution to pinpoint areas where exposure is concentrated among specific population groups. Beyond mapping risks, they capture the interconnectedness of risks by measuring dependence at the regional level. Their dependence measure highlights whether individuals are affected -or not- by several risks at the same time, emphasizing the cumulative dimension of exposure.
Findings reveal significant regional variation. In terms of the geographical distribution of average risks, exposure is most pronounced in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe, particularly in Bulgaria. In contrast, parts of Flanders, areas of France, Northern Spain, and North-West Romania stand out for their lower risk levels. These differences are largely driven by the geographical distribution of maximum risk, the values being the largest in Mediterranean countries, the Baltic states, and other parts of Eastern Europe. While the relevance of specific risk dimensions varies across regions, cardiovascular risk, poverty, and both energy and transport insecurity consistently emerge as the most prominent.
To delve more on the results of the study, read the full publication here
The SPES Focus on WP6 “Vulnerabilities in Europe During Times of Transition” as part of Task 6.2 “Groups vulnerable to shocks” / Work Package 6. The report has been written by Amaia Palencia-Esteban – Researcher of the SPES Project, London School of Economics and Political Sciences; Paolo Brunori – Team leader of the SPES Project, London School of Economics and Political Sciences and University of Florence.
